CT Financial Projections 2026-2028 Review
This study examines the Governor’s current Three-Year Budget Report, aka Out-Year Report (“Out-Year”), which forecasts the budget in the three fiscal years (FY 2026 to FY 2028) after the budget for FY 2024 and FY 2025. The Out Year does not provide reliable guidance, given its significant methodological deficiencies. Guidance is needed, however, in the face of the state’s massive unfunded obligations of about $92 billion and the associated risk of large future tax increases.
The Out-Year is released in February with the Governor’s Budget Proposal for the biennium. Both are based on the Consensus Revenue Forecast of mid-January (CRF – Jan 23). The Out-Year is not updated, and, thus, is of limited value beyond the date of its release; often, actual results soon diverge from Out-Year expectations. The ultimate budget differs as to appropriations and as to revenue, which is based on the Consensus Revenue Forecast of early May (CRF–May 23).
